DATA TRANSPARENCY
Data Sources & Methodology
Complete transparency on where our data comes from, how often it updates, and exactly how we calculate our analysis.
Current Data Status
US Treasury Debt
238 quarters (1966 to 2025 Q2)
Last data: 1 Apr 2025. Updates are paused.
Fed Balance Sheet
287 months (2002 to Oct 2026)
Updated 21 Oct 2026
Bitcoin Price
Daily (2010 to 25 Oct 2026)
Data last loaded: 1 Apr 2025. Values up to that date are actual FRED data. This page shows no projections.
Data Sources
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Primary data source for US Treasury debt and Fed balance sheet
Series Used:
- •
GFDEBTN- US Total Public Debt - •
WALCL- Fed Total Assets
Details:
- • Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- • Update: Monthly (10 days after month end)
- • Quality: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Official government data
- • Cost: FREE (API access)
URL: fred.stlouisfed.org | API: fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api
Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
Global corporate debt securities data (planned for Phase 3)
Coverage:
- • 40+ countries worldwide
- • Government + Corporate debt
- • Maturity buckets (<1yr, 1-5yr, 5-10yr, >10yr)
Details:
- • Provider: Bank for International Settlements
- • Update: Quarterly (~90 day lag)
- • Quality: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Central bank data
- • Cost: FREE (CSV download)
⏳ Status: Planned for future update to expand coverage from 40% (US only) to 80% (US + Eurozone + China + Japan + UK)
CoinGecko API
Bitcoin price data for correlation analysis
Data Used:
- • Bitcoin daily closing price (USD)
- • Historical data from 2013-present
- • Aggregated to quarterly for analysis
Details:
- • Provider: CoinGecko
- • Update: Daily
- • Quality: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Industry standard
- • Cost: FREE tier
Update Schedule
Monthly Automated Updates
PAUSEDEvery 1st of the month at 00:30 UTC, we automatically fetch:
- • Latest US Treasury debt data (FRED)
- • Latest Fed balance sheet data (FRED)
- • Recalculate global aggregates
- • Recalculate pressure levels
- • Update Bitcoin correlation data
Powered by GitHub Actions - runs automatically, no manual intervention needed
Quarterly Manual Updates
PLANNEDEvery quarter (~2 hours of work), we plan to manually collect:
- • Eurozone government debt (ECB Statistical Warehouse)
- • China government debt (PBOC + IMF reports)
- • Japan government debt (Bank of Japan)
- • UK government debt (Bank of England)
- • Global corporate debt (BIS Debt Securities)
This would expand coverage from 40% (US only) to 80% (Major 5 economies)
Data Quality Standards
Official Sources Only
All data from government and central bank sources (FRED, BIS, IMF, ECB, BoJ, BoE). No third-party aggregators or unofficial sources.
Automated Updates
US data is designed to update automatically each month. The status cards above show when data was last loaded.
Verification Steps
Every import includes: record count verification, date range checks, statistical summaries, and outlier detection. Failed imports trigger alerts.
Reproducible
All calculation methods documented. Other researchers can verify our findings using the same public data sources and methodology.
Transparent
We clearly distinguish between actual data and any projections. Projections are always labelled. Confidence levels disclosed for all forecasts.
Global Coverage
Current: 40% of Global Debt Markets
Planned: 80% of Global Debt Markets
🇺🇸 US
40%
✅ Live
🇪🇺 Eurozone
18%
⏳ Planned
🇨🇳 China
12%
⏳ Planned
🇯🇵 Japan
8%
⏳ Planned
🇬🇧 UK
2%
⏳ Planned
Note: Current US-only data is sufficient for analysis as the US dollar is the global reserve currency and US Fed policy drives worldwide liquidity conditions. Global expansion will provide additional confirmation but won't change the core pattern.
Update History
October 18, 2025
LAUNCH- • Initial data import: 989 records (1966-2025)
- • 238 quarters of US debt data
- • 275 months of Fed balance sheet
- • Automated monthly updates configured
- • Five visualization components deployed
November 1, 2025
MISSEDPlanned monthly update did not run. Data stops at 1 Apr 2025.
Not scheduled
PLANNEDExpand to global coverage (Eurozone, China, Japan, UK) - 80% of global debt markets